Analysis of the bitcoin price, week 19-25 of July 2021. Realized Price Metric

This week the price of BTC started at $ 31,500 and ended at $ 34,600, in general terms it is a recovery week in the price where it came to be at $ 29,300 and has ended in a clear rise of more than 8% and with a good bullish projection in the short term.

Possibly the event that has most influenced the rise in the price of bitcoin has been The B Word event on July 21 that brought together Elon Musk CEO of Tesla, SpaceX … Jack Dorsey CEO of Twitter and Square and Catherine Wood , CEO of Ark Invest to chat about the curiosities of Bitcoin. The market was waiting for the statements that Elon Musk was going to make and that for the most part have been pro Bitcoin and he has even acknowledged owning bitcoin in addition to Ethereum and Dogecoin which has pushed the price of BTC higher. This shows us that Elon’s opinions on bitcoin continue to carry a lot of weight with investors mainly in the short term. 

You can see the talk at the following link

Another unconfirmed bullish news is the rumor that Amazon will allow paying with bitcoin at the end of the year. 

Once again, the price of bitcoin behaves the opposite of the generalized sentiment, we had two three weeks with a large part of the analysts and investors predicting a big drop and this week what we have is a rise in the price that has not yet found its resistance so it will foreseeably continue to rise.

One more example of this negative sentiment is the high number of short positions that were opened on Sunday, July 25, that is, we have many more people betting that bitcoin is going to fall in price than people who think it is going to rise. The volume of the short is surprising for a long time that it has not been seen something the same and also with the little volume that is currently in the Spot market, in any case they have not been successful and the losses have been considerable and most of them were leveraged. 

In the last 24 hours, more than 800 million dollars of short positions have been liquidated in the futures market to more than one this has done a lot of damage.

the amount of shorts and as

On the volume

We continue in the trend of low trading, the volume of sale and purchase of BTC remains at a minimum, on July 20 and 21 the volume increased but in general terms trading continues to decline .

A low volume does not mean that the value has to go down, what it entails is less price sustainability. If a large volume is traded, the number of buyers and sellers and the amount of BTC is greater, which helps the agreed price to be more difficult to move and, on the contrary, when we have a low volume it is easier than movements with more. low capital are able to move the price, both up and down.


This week the good news trumps the negative.

  • Bitcoin event held, The B Word
  • Bank of America allows some clients to trade bitcoin futures
  • Tether says an audit will take place in a few months
  • Rumor that Amazon plans to accept Bitcoin payments by the end of the year. 

There is a saying in the stock market of “buy with the rumor, sell with the news”.

The metric of the week, Realized Price

A good indicator to detect downward or stable periods in the medium term is the Realized Price, which is the value of all coins at the price they were purchased divided by the amount of BTC in circulation.

The Market Capitalization is the result of multiplying all the currencies that there are by the value of the BTC today.

So the realized price shows us the average purchase value of the BTCs and the market capitalization tells us how much all of the bitcoins in circulation are worth now.

In the chart of the realized price, the periods where the line is horizontal show the bearish or stable periods and when the line rises it shows the bullish periods.

When the price curve crosses above the realized price, a strongly bearish period begins and when the cross is reversed, that is, the price curve crosses the price curve from below, a bullish period is entered. .

Bitcoin distribution, the Sharks.

The only group that decreases its BTC holdings this week are the Shark, which are the addresses that have between 100 and 1000 BTC, in this group are some of the institutional investors who are waiting to see the price evolution to act part of this The middle class sent some of their BTC to the exchanges (Humpback) to sell, the rest of the groups are stockpiling bitcoin because they expect it to rise in the short medium term.

If we look at the number of addresses of the Shark in the last week it is seen that they have decreased by 21 which corroborates that sale of BTC by some of them.

In general, the Shark have kept their BTC holdings stable in this lateralized period that bitcoin has been having since May 19.  

Analysis of the BTC price during the week of July 19 to 25, 2021. Bitcoin Realized Price Metric

Categories: Bitcoin, BTC, Coins, Distribution, Hodl, Price, Trader, Trading

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