On-Chain Signals

Latest On-Chain Signals

Detected automatically from on-chain, market and macro data. At most three a day, ranked by how rarely they fire — quiet days mean nothing changed.

Bitcoin Daily Report — 26 Aug 2026

BTC $78,903 ▲ 0.6% NUPL 0.334 — Hope MVRV 1.501 SOPR 1.013 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 65 — Greed • SOPR LTH crossed below 1.0 (1.004 → 0.924) — sellers at loss https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-08-26.html

Aug 27, 2026
Macro bullish

Capital flows into Bitcoin turned positive

Realized cap changed $2,281,037,558 over 30 days, sustained for five sessions. Net new capital is entering the network — the underlying driver of durable advances.

Aug 27, 2026 Chart →
Profit & loss neutral

NUPL moved into the Hope zone

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss now classifies the market as Hope. Share of market cap held as unrealized profit, mapped to a sentiment band.

Aug 27, 2026 Chart →
Regime neutral critical

Market regime shifted to Transition

The composite regime score (on-chain, trend, volatility, funding, flows, ETF) now reads Transition. The score is between the hot and cold thresholds, with no clear direction.

Aug 27, 2026 Chart →

Shrimp Alert! Coins in addresses with < 1 BTC.

1,394,735 BTC is at its lowest level in the last 100 days. 🔹Possible distribution 🔹Change last day: -0.0322% 🔹Change last week: -0.1832% 🔹Price bitcoin: $78,601 #Bitcoin #OnChain https://charts.bgeometrics.com/bitcoin_distribution_coins_tables.html https://charts.bgeometrics.com/distribution_coin_shrimp_dark.html

Aug 26, 2026

Alert Open Interest Futures! Open Interest ($33671660644.724) is at its highest level in the last 30 days.

🔹Potential bullish signal. #Bitcoin #OnChain https://charts.bgeometrics.com/open_interest_futures.html

Aug 26, 2026

Bitcoin Daily Report — 25 Aug 2026

BTC $78,456 ▼ 0.6% NUPL 0.330 — Hope MVRV 1.493 SOPR 1.010 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 74 — Greed • SOPR LTH crossed above 1.0 (0.974 → 1.004) — sellers in profit https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-08-25.html

Aug 26, 2026
Network neutral

VDD Multiple entered the yellow zone

Value Days Destroyed Multiple is 0.76 (46th percentile). Value-weighted spending of old coins against its yearly baseline.

Aug 26, 2026 Chart →
Profit & loss bullish

Short-term holders moved above break-even

STH-MVRV is 1.130: coins bought in the last 155 days are above their average cost, sustained for five sessions. Recent buyers back in profit removes the most reflexive source of supply.

Aug 26, 2026 Chart →
Valuation bullish

Price closed above the 111-day moving average

BTC at $77,593 held above its 111-day average ($67,533) for five sessions. The 111-day average is the fast leg of the Pi Cycle Top model and a reliable medium-term trend filter.

Aug 26, 2026 Chart →

Shrimp Alert! Coins in addresses with < 1 BTC.

1,395,184 BTC is at its lowest level in the last 100 days. 🔹Possible distribution 🔹Change last day: -0.0354% 🔹Change last week: -0.1583% 🔹Price bitcoin: $78,894 #Bitcoin #OnChain https://charts.bgeometrics.com/bitcoin_distribution_coins_tables.html https://charts.bgeometrics.com/distribution_coin_shrimp_dark.html

Aug 25, 2026

Fear and Greed Index Alert! Fear and Greed Index BTC (74) is at its highest level in the last 365 days.

🔹Potential bullish signal in the short term. #Bitcoin #OnChain https://charts.bgeometrics.com/fear_greed.html

Aug 25, 2026

ETF Alert! ETF flow (606300000.0) is at its highest level in the last 30 days.

🔹Potential bullish signal. #Bitcoin #OnChain https://charts.bgeometrics.com/etf.html

Aug 25, 2026

Bitcoin Daily Report — 24 Aug 2026

BTC $78,899 ▲ 1.7% NUPL 0.335 — Hope MVRV 1.503 SOPR 1.019 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 73 — Greed • SOPR LTH crossed below 1.0 (1.155 → 0.974) — sellers at loss https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-08-24.html

Aug 25, 2026
Profit & loss bearish

Sell-side risk ratio reached a historical high

Sell-side risk is 0.00251, in the 96th percentile. Holders are taking unusually large profits relative to the size of the network.

Aug 25, 2026 Chart →
Derivatives neutral

Leverage flush: liquidations spiked

$321,387,674 of positions were liquidated, 11.92 standard deviations above the 60-day norm. Forced closures clear leverage quickly and often mark short-term turning points.

Aug 25, 2026 Chart →
Valuation bullish

Price closed above the short-term holder cost basis

BTC at $77,543 is above the $68,410 average entry of coins bought in the last 155 days, held for five sessions. Recent buyers are back in profit, which historically restores demand.

Aug 25, 2026 Chart →

ETF Alert!

Flow 8,297 BTC is at its highest level in the last 100 days. 🔹Possible bullrun in the short term 🔹Price bitcoin: $73,071 #Bitcoin https://charts.bgeometrics.com/etf.html

Aug 24, 2026