Detected automatically from on-chain, market and macro data. At most three a day, ranked by how rarely they fire — quiet days mean nothing changed.
BTC $83,142 ▲ 1.5% NUPL 0.357 — Hope MVRV 1.554 SOPR 1.003 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 57 — Greed • SOPR STH crossed above 1.0 (1.000 → 1.002) — sellers in profit https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-13.html
30-day change by cohort: real whales (1K-10K BTC) +35,501 BTC (+0.85%). Entities >10K BTC (ETFs, exchanges, custodians, not whales) -49,970 BTC (-1.65%). Retail (<1 BTC) is flat at +176 BTC. Mid-size whales are accumulating; retail is not. Cost basis matters. STH realized price is $74.5K vs spot $83.1K; LTH realized price is $48.7K. STH SOPR is 1.0025 (46th percentile), so recent buyers are selling at barely any profit. LTH SOPR is 1.0247. Not a euphoric profit-taking profile. Reserve Risk is at the 8th percentile and 90d CDD at the 66th: old coins are moving, but conviction relative to price remains high. This describes holder behaviour, not a signal to act. https://charts.bgeometrics.com/hodl_waves.html #OnChain
BTC $81,900 ▼ 2.2% NUPL 0.347 — Hope MVRV 1.533 SOPR 1.002 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 69 — Greed https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-12.html
Open interest sits at 93,575 BTC ($7.84B). Longs are paying shorts through funding, but futures trade a touch below the index price of $83,676 (basis -$29.18). The two signals point in slightly different directions, so leverage is not one-sided. Check On Chain argues that fear left over from the last bear market still shapes positioning across on-chain, ETF and derivatives data. Our read is mixed. Fear & Greed shows 69 (Greed), yet spot ETFs net sold 6,815 BTC over the 7 days to Oct 8. Takeaway: a long-heavy liquidation day, modest funding and a slightly negative basis look more like a leverage reset than a stretched market. Worth tracking whether funding and open interest rise together from here. https://charts.bgeometrics.com/funding_rate.html #Bitcoin
BTC $83,031 ▲ 0.5% NUPL 0.357 — Hope MVRV 1.554 SOPR 1.005 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 61 — Greed https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-11.html
SOPR is 1.0049: coins moved on-chain were spent just above cost. Short-term holders sit at 1.0019, essentially breakeven, while long-term holders realized 1.4227. Spot at $83K is above the STH realized price of $74.4K. Cohort shift over 30 days: LTH net position -57.7K BTC, STH +64.1K BTC. Exchange reserves rose 53.7K BTC (+1.90%). Spot ETFs: -6,815 BTC over the trailing 7 days to Oct 8. Coins are moving from long-term to newer hands. 10x Research says money is leaving: ETFs and stablecoins. Our ETF data agrees, yet valuation sits below median, with Reserve Risk at the 8th percentile. Soft flows, not stretched valuation. https://charts.bgeometrics.com/reserve_risk.html #OnChain
BTC $83,031 ▼ 3.2% NUPL 0.357 — Hope MVRV 1.554 SOPR 1.005 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 61 — Greed https://bgeometrics.com/reports/weekly/2026-10-11.html
BTC $83,031 ▲ 0.5% NUPL 0.357 — Hope MVRV 1.554 SOPR 1.005 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 64 — Greed https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-10.html
A year after the Oct 10, 2025 flash crash, CoinDesk recalls $19B liquidated in a day and counts 10 three-sigma days in 2026 despite lower volatility. Today: open interest 92,702 BTC ($7.71B), basis -0.060%. Positioning looks light, not crowded. 10x Research notes miners fell 11-21% on the week as the market prices them as AI-infrastructure plays, while BTC lost only 2.5%. Our data: spot ETFs -8,738 BTC over 7 days; entities >10K BTC (ETFs, custodians, exchanges) -52,779 BTC in 30 days. Meanwhile real whales (1K-10K BTC) added 41,123 BTC in 30d. Valuation is mid-range: MVRV 1.554 (37th percentile), Reserve Risk 8th percentile. The pressure is macro, with the 10Y at 5.22%. Not advice. https://charts.bgeometrics.com/mvrv.html #OnChain
A year after the Oct 10, 2025 flash crash, CoinDesk recalls $19B liquidated in a day and counts 10 three-sigma days in 2026 despite lower volatility. Today: open interest 92,702 BTC ($7.71B), basis -0.060%. Positioning looks light, not crowded. 10x Research notes miners fell 11-21% on the week as the market prices them as AI-infrastructure plays, while BTC lost only 2.5%. Our data: spot ETFs -8,738 BTC over 7 days; entities >10K BTC (ETFs, custodians, exchanges) -52,779 BTC in 30 days. Meanwhile real whales (1K-10K BTC) added 41,123 BTC in 30d. Valuation is mid-range: MVRV 1.554 (37th percentile), Reserve Risk 8th percentile. The pressure is macro, with the 10Y at 5.22%. Not advice. https://charts.bgeometrics.com/mvrv.html #OnChain
BTC $82,628 ▲ 1.1% NUPL 0.353 — Hope MVRV 1.546 SOPR 1.002 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 59 — Greed • SOPR STH crossed above 1.0 (0.997 → 1.002) — sellers in profit https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-09.html
How it works: Reserve Risk divides price by a "HODL bank", an accumulating measure of the opportunity cost holders pay by not selling. A low ratio means conviction is strong relative to price. A high ratio means price is stretched relative to conviction. Cross-check with our other valuation metrics: MVRV is 1.55 (37th percentile) and NUPL is 0.35 (Hope zone, 37th percentile). Valuation is mid-range, not euphoric, which fits a low Reserve Risk reading. Nuance: Reserve Risk moves slowly. Over 30 days, LTH net position changed by -60,908 BTC while STH net position rose by 87,201 BTC. Some rotation is under way that this metric will only show with a lag. A percentile is a historical position, not a timing signal. It describes context and makes no forecast. You can pull Reserve Risk and the other metrics above programmatically via the BGeometrics API docs: https://charts.bgeometrics.com/bitcoin_api_dark.html #OnChain
How it works: Reserve Risk divides price by a "HODL bank", an accumulating measure of the opportunity cost holders pay by not selling. A low ratio means conviction is strong relative to price. A high ratio means price is stretched relative to conviction. Cross-check with our other valuation metrics: MVRV is 1.55 (37th percentile) and NUPL is 0.35 (Hope zone, 37th percentile). Valuation is mid-range, not euphoric, which fits a low Reserve Risk reading. Nuance: Reserve Risk moves slowly. Over 30 days, LTH net position changed by -60,908 BTC while STH net position rose by 87,201 BTC. Some rotation is under way that this metric will only show with a lag. A percentile is a historical position, not a timing signal. It describes context and makes no forecast. You can pull Reserve Risk and the other metrics above programmatically via the BGeometrics API docs: https://charts.bgeometrics.com/bitcoin_api_dark.html #OnChain
BTC $81,746 ▼ 1.9% NUPL 0.346 — Hope MVRV 1.530 SOPR 1.000 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 64 — Greed https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-08.html
The 10Y yield is 5.28% with the 2s10s spread at +0.51 (Oct 7). That is a tight-money backdrop for risk assets. Wolf Street notes the ECB is still running QT and hiking, so global liquidity is not getting a tailwind from other major central banks. Derivatives show a flush, not a crowded trade. Oct 8 liquidations: $133.8M, of which $124.8M longs (~93%). Funding is only 0.0018% per 8h (~1.9% annualized) and the futures basis is slightly negative at -0.060%. CoinDesk ties the dip to oil and Iran headlines. On-chain, the damage is contained. MVRV 1.53 (36th percentile), NUPL 0.346, Reserve Risk in the 8th percentile. STH SOPR at 0.997 means recent buyers are moving coins at a slight loss. Spot ETFs: +2,814 BTC net over the 7 days to Oct 6. Takeaway: macro is a headwind through yields and geopolitics, but liquidity gauges are not signalling stress and leverage was reset. Not financial advice. Global M2 vs BTC: https://charts.bgeometrics.com/m2_global.html #Bitcoin
The 10Y yield is 5.28% with the 2s10s spread at +0.51 (Oct 7). That is a tight-money backdrop for risk assets. Wolf Street notes the ECB is still running QT and hiking, so global liquidity is not getting a tailwind from other major central banks. Derivatives show a flush, not a crowded trade. Oct 8 liquidations: $133.8M, of which $124.8M longs (~93%). Funding is only 0.0018% per 8h (~1.9% annualized) and the futures basis is slightly negative at -0.060%. CoinDesk ties the dip to oil and Iran headlines. On-chain, the damage is contained. MVRV 1.53 (36th percentile), NUPL 0.346, Reserve Risk in the 8th percentile. STH SOPR at 0.997 means recent buyers are moving coins at a slight loss. Spot ETFs: +2,814 BTC net over the 7 days to Oct 6. Takeaway: macro is a headwind through yields and geopolitics, but liquidity gauges are not signalling stress and leverage was reset. Not financial advice. Global M2 vs BTC: https://charts.bgeometrics.com/m2_global.html #Bitcoin
BTC $83,314 ▼ 2.7% NUPL 0.359 — Hope MVRV 1.560 SOPR 1.006 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 71 — Greed • SOPR STH crossed below 1.0 (1.004 → 0.999) — sellers at loss https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-07.html
BTC $85,583 ▼ 0.2% NUPL 0.377 — Hope MVRV 1.606 SOPR 1.006 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 73 — Greed https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-06.html