Detected automatically from on-chain, market and macro data. At most three a day, ranked by how rarely they fire — quiet days mean nothing changed.
BTC $77,582 ▲ 0.3% NUPL 0.304 — Hope MVRV 1.437 SOPR 1.003 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 30 — Fear BG Vector ACCUMULATION (100% BTC, 7d delayed) • SOPR crossed above 1.0 (0.993 → 1.003) — sellers in profit • SOPR LTH crossed above 1.0 (0.982 → 1.171) — sellers in profit https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-31.html
Ecoinometrics argued that four straight days of spot ETF inflows were too small to rebuild demand. Our data agrees on size: +220 BTC on Oct 29, +2,219 BTC over 7 days. Positive, but modest. Checkonchain urged judging the hack by on-chain behaviour, not headlines. What holders did over 30 days: LTHs net -70,172 BTC, STHs net +194,205 BTC. Real whales (1K-10K BTC) added 4,460 BTC, while >10K entities (ETFs, exchanges, custodians) fell 27,561 BTC. Exchange reserves rose 1.28%. Derivatives look calm: funding 0.0100% per 8h, OI $7.60B. Valuation isn't stretched: MVRV 1.437 (32nd percentile), Fear & Greed 30. Price sits just above the STH realized price of $75,789, a level worth watching. Context, not advice. https://charts.bgeometrics.com/sth_realized_price.html #OnChain
BTC $77,313 ▼ 1.0% NUPL 0.302 — Hope MVRV 1.432 SOPR 0.993 (below 1.0) Fear & Greed 30 — Fear BG Vector ACCUMULATION (100% BTC, 7d delayed) https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-30.html
How it works: Reserve Risk compares price with the accumulated opportunity cost of holders who chose not to sell (built from coin-days destroyed). Low = conviction is high relative to price. High = price is stretched relative to conviction. A low reading is context, not a timing signal. Other gauges are less extreme: MVRV 1.43 (31st percentile), NUPL 0.30 (Hope zone). STH SOPR is 0.9936, so short-term holders are spending coins at a slight loss. LTH supply fell 66,201 BTC in 30 days. Reserve Risk, MVRV, NUPL, SOPR and more are available through the BGeometrics API, so you can build your own dashboards or alerts. Docs: https://charts.bgeometrics.com/bitcoin_api_dark.html Not financial advice. #OnChain
BTC $78,115 ▼ 3.9% NUPL 0.313 — Hope MVRV 1.455 SOPR 0.994 (below 1.0) Fear & Greed 51 — Neutral BG Vector ACCUMULATION (100% BTC, 7d delayed) • SOPR crossed below 1.0 (1.003 → 0.994) — sellers at loss • SOPR LTH crossed below 1.0 (1.137 → 0.838) — sellers at loss https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-29.html
Leverage did the damage: $143.9M was liquidated on Oct 29, 86% of it longs ($123.8M). Funding is only 0.0036% per 8h (~4% annualized) and basis is slightly negative, so leverage wasn't stretched. Bitcoin Magazine ties the flush to Binance's breach news. The backdrop is firm, not easy: 10Y at 5.05%, DXY 101.73, 2s10s +0.38, gold $4,022 (BTC/gold: 19 oz). Wolf Street flags a hot US economy and sharp tech selloffs on earnings wrinkles. Rates are the headwind to watch. Level to watch: STH realized price at $75.9K, about 3% below Oct 29's $78.1K. That day saw 10.5K BTC of net exchange outflows, SOPR at 0.9937 and Reserve Risk at the 6th percentile. This reads as macro and headline noise, not valuation stress. #Bitcoin https://charts.bgeometrics.com/sth_realized_price.html
BTC $81,284 ▲ 0.5% NUPL 0.339 — Hope MVRV 1.513 SOPR 1.003 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 51 — Neutral BG Vector ACCUMULATION (100% BTC, 7d delayed) https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-28.html
On Oct 28 net flow was +7,497 BTC, with an inflow/outflow ratio of 1.22: more coins arrived on exchanges than left. Spot ETF demand is not offsetting it. The latest ETF reading (Oct 26) was +1,380 BTC, and the trailing 7-day total is +3,830 BTC. Positive, but small. Entities >10K BTC (ETFs, exchanges, custodians) fell 64,829 BTC (-2.13%) in 30 days to Oct 18. Ecoinometrics argues that Bitcoin demand has faded while bond ETFs absorb the marginal capital. Our holder data fits that picture: over 30 days LTH net position is -152,409 BTC and STH is +187,501 BTC. Price is flat at $81.3K, -0.1% in 7 days. Takeaway: modest ETF inflows, higher exchange balances and coins moving from LTH to STH. That is a market absorbing supply, not one with strong new demand. It describes flows, not direction. https://charts.bgeometrics.com/etf_btc.html #OnChain
BTC $80,910 ▲ 1.0% NUPL 0.336 — Hope MVRV 1.506 SOPR 1.000 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 48 — Fear BG Vector ACCUMULATION (100% BTC, 7d delayed) • SOPR STH crossed above 1.0 (0.999 → 1.000) — sellers in profit https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-27.html
Cohort view (30d change, data as of Oct 18): real whales (1K-10K BTC) added 39,610 BTC (+0.95%) to 4.20M. Entities >10K BTC, a bucket of ETFs, exchanges and custodians rather than whales, fell 64,829 BTC (-2.13%). Retail (<1 BTC): -0.14%. The newer buyers sit close to breakeven. STH realized price is $75,809 vs spot $80,910, about 6.7% in profit, and STH SOPR reads 1.0. LTH realized price is $48,565, so older coins carry large unrealized gains. Price fell 4.0% over the last 7 days. Takeaway: coins are rotating from patient holders to recent buyers whose average cost ($75.8K) sits just under spot. Ecoinometrics also noted ETF demand turning negative as price tests $80K. https://charts.bgeometrics.com/hodl_waves.html #Bitcoin #OnChain
BTC $80,145 ▲ 0.2% NUPL 0.330 — Hope MVRV 1.492 SOPR 1.001 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 50 — Neutral BG Vector ACCUMULATION (100% BTC, 7d delayed) https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-26.html
Open interest is 97,373 BTC ($7.75B). Perp funding is mildly positive, while the futures basis is slightly negative at -$41.64 (-0.050%) against a $79,977 index. That reads as flat positioning, not crowded longs. Ecoinometrics noted that ETF demand fell below zero for the first time in three months as price tests $80K, with a Fed meeting on Wednesday. Our ETF flows are mixed: -1,704 BTC on Oct 23, but +2,512 BTC over the trailing 7 days. Takeaway: this pullback was not a leverage flush. Positioning looks neutral going into the Fed meeting and the Oct 30 monthly options/futures expiry. Not financial advice. Funding history: https://charts.bgeometrics.com/funding_rate.html #Bitcoin
BTC $79,977 ▼ 1.2% NUPL 0.328 — Hope MVRV 1.489 SOPR 1.002 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 54 — Neutral BG Vector ACCUMULATION (100% BTC, 7d delayed) • SOPR crossed above 1.0 (0.999 → 1.002) — sellers in profit https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-25.html
SOPR is 1.0015, so coins moving on-chain are changing hands at roughly break-even. The split matters: short-term holder SOPR is 0.9998, while long-term holders are realizing at 1.25. Older coins are taking profit and recent buyers are flat. Short-term holder realized price is $75.8K, about 5% below spot. Over 30 days, STH net position rose 198,770 BTC while LTH net position fell 156,916 BTC. Coins are shifting from older to newer hands, at a measured pace. Check On Chain is asking whether this is a disbelief rally or a bear-market bounce. Our data: Reserve Risk at the 7th percentile (holder conviction high vs price), MVRV mid-range. Neither euphoria nor capitulation. https://charts.bgeometrics.com/mvrv.html #Bitcoin
BTC $79,977 ▼ 2.4% NUPL 0.328 — Hope MVRV 1.489 SOPR 1.002 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 54 — Neutral BG Vector ACCUMULATION (100% BTC, 7d delayed) • SOPR STH crossed below 1.0 (1.002 → 1.000) — sellers at loss https://bgeometrics.com/reports/weekly/2026-10-25.html
BTC $80,925 ▼ 0.0% NUPL 0.336 — Hope MVRV 1.507 SOPR 0.999 (below 1.0) Fear & Greed 51 — Neutral BG Vector ACCUMULATION (100% BTC, 7d delayed) • SOPR crossed below 1.0 (1.003 → 0.999) — sellers at loss • SOPR STH crossed below 1.0 (1.001 → 0.998) — sellers at loss https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-24.html
Ecoinometrics noted October's longest ETF inflow streak is just 3 days, and outflows 2. BGeometrics: -7,822 BTC on Oct 22, yet the trailing 7-day total is +1,009 BTC. Net: flat. Neither side is in control. Where the data adds nuance (30d): LTH net position -158,120 BTC, STH +177,456. Whales (1K-10K BTC) +39,610 BTC, while >10K entities (ETFs/exchanges/custodians) -64,829. Price $80.9K is ~7% above the STH realized price ($75.8K). 10x Research asked if the $80K test is a thin-weekend false breakdown. Derivatives show no stress: funding 0.0094% per 8h, OI 93,322 BTC, $64.2M liquidated on Oct 24 (longs $57.7M). Leverage is light. Takeaway: flows are indecisive, but valuation isn't stretched and leverage is contained. That describes a market waiting for a catalyst, not a verdict. https://charts.bgeometrics.com/reserve_risk.html #Bitcoin #OnChain
BTC $80,938 ▼ 0.6% NUPL 0.337 — Hope MVRV 1.507 SOPR 1.003 (above 1.0) Fear & Greed 50 — Neutral • SOPR LTH crossed above 1.0 (0.810 → 1.076) — sellers in profit https://bgeometrics.com/reports/daily/2026-10-23.html