Bitcoin analysis week of June 21 to 27, 2021

BTC price drop of 5.19%. The week began with a very steep decline that lasted until Tuesday afternoon reaching $ 24,500 and from there the value recovered until Friday June 25 where it fell again until Saturday and on Sunday it had a small rebound leaving the price at about $ 32,500.


  • Chinese policy regarding mining is causing a large migration of miners and a drop of more than 50% of the hashrate.  
  • The lack of support due to no large purchases of BTC in the past between $ 20,000 and $ 30,000.
  • The expiration of the options that have pushed the price down during the first part of the week.
  • The great capitulation that has led to the largest losses in absolute value in the history of bitcoin. This data is calculated by subtracting the current price of the bitcoins that are being spent today with respect to the price they had when they were bought. The SOPR metric that draws on the UTXO information gives us an indicative value of this fact.
  • The famous death crossover has also taken place since the moving average of the last 50 days has crossed the 200 moving average. Traders attach great importance to this fact, that the only thing that indicates that in the short term (50 days) we have a more downward trend than in the short-medium term (200 days) but we know the importance of sentiments in the market and simply the fact that this cross occurs leads some investors to act by accentuating the decline .    

So we continue in this area where people who bought two and three months ago only because the price was going up are now selling because the price is going down.

If we look at the histogram of the bitcoin purchase prices of @tsypruyan, we see that between $ 20,000 and $ 30,000 almost no purchases were made, mainly due to the rapid rise it had in that range, so there is no good price construction. It is conducive to being an area prone to oscillations, we did not find supports caused by large purchases that make it difficult for bitcoin owners to sell at a loss. 

In the Hodl Wave graph where the behavior of bitcoin owners with more than a year old is shown, who as a general rule are experienced bitcoiners, their attitude is to buy BTC.    

Bitcoin distribution

The table of the BTC distribution based on the amount they show that the whales (1000 to 10000 BTC) are sending large amount of BTC to the exchanges (Humpback). The whale retreats occurred on Monday and Saturday. They have shed 34,000 BTC and exchanges have increased theirs by 24,000.

This way of operating leaves us wondering if it is a strategy of the whales to cause a drop in the price and promote the sales of BTC from retailers to buy them.

The future

The proposal of Bitcoin offers is still in full force so there is no reason not to be optimistic in the long term. In the short we have to be aware that we are up 300% compared to just a year ago and that a little more than a year has passed since the last Halving of May 2020 and that although we have been with the price down for several weeks and lateralized, possibly we are still within the bullish period that historically comes after the Halving. 

Categories: Bitcoin, BTC, Coins, Distribution, Hodl, Price, Trader

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