Bitcoin analysis for the week of June 14 to 20, 2021

A bearish week for the price of BTC although it continues to remain in the range between $ 32,000 and $ 42,000, where negative news have predominated over positive ones. So the bitcoin price remains in an unstable equilibrium from which it can break out at any moment. In general, traders continue to wait for signals to appear that indicate where the market can go. 

The favorable news of the future sale of MicroStrategy shares worth 1 billion dollars to buy bitcoin and the positive comments of the investor Paul Tudor Jones in favor of Bitcoin have not been able to with the news of the power cut of some mining centers for part of the Chinese government to manage to tip the balance of the price to the positive side.

We are less than a week away from the expiration of the bitcoin options that will occur on Friday, June 25, and throughout the entire year 2021 the two weeks prior to that date have led to a fall in the price of BTC.

Distribution of BTC

The movements of BTC between the different groups based on the amount of bitcoin they own are very significant, making it clear that the whales (who have between 1000 and 10000 BTC) have been buying bitcoin for the last 7 days when the same as the retailers / Shrimp (which are the addresses with less than 1 BTC) because they think that the value of bitcoin is low and although a drop is possible in the short term, they believe that in the medium and long term the price will return to go up, the rest of the actors, Shark, Fish and Crab have been selling BTC the bad news and the time BTC without leaving the channel has filled their patience and they have gotten rid of more than 30,000 BTC.

Some long-term holders, which are users who have bitcoin that have not moved them for more than 155 days, have also made sales due to loss of patience because the rise they were waiting for did not occur.

The distribution of UTXO according to the purchase price

In the @tsypruyan graph of the UTXO histogram also called URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) where it shows the realized price of all the UTXO on a given day, it is observed that we are at the last support line of $ 33,000 and that if the next important buying zone is exceeded, it is at $ 27,000, which could facilitate the decline in the price of BTC.


Greed and Fear

The pessimistic sentiment has grown this week, the indicator of euphoria and fear Sunday was at 79% where 100% is extreme fear. 

In the graph of the Greed and Fear it is observed how coupled the sentiment that is captured on the Internet is with the price of bitcoin. It is clearly shown that when there is fear the price goes down and when there is euphoria we have the price up.

The correlation between the price of bitcoin and the metric of fear and euphoria during this year is 0.66 which is very high because 1 means a total correlation and 0 no correlation.

To counteract the current pessimistic sentiments of the market, we can look at the prices of bitcoin on the same day today throughout the years, to observe the great appreciation that the price of bitcoin has suffered throughout its history with the spectacular rise of the price. last year.

Categories: Bitcoin, BTC, Coins, Distribution, Hodl, Price, Trader, Trading

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