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BG Vector: Bitcoin risk-on / risk-off signal
Is Bitcoin risk-on or risk-off today? BG Vector answers once a day: which of four Bitcoin market states we are in and how much bitcoin to hold versus cash. It is built from Bitcoin on-chain momentum and capital flows, with a methodology you can check. Read the full story in BG Vector: a Bitcoin risk-on / risk-off signal built from on-chain data.
Latest public reading (2026-10-17): Bitcoin is risk-on, BG Vector state Accumulation, suggested allocation 100% BTC.
Current state
· BTC
data as of
BG Vector, period shown
max drawdown , since
Buy & hold, period shown
max drawdown
This reading is delayed. Subscribers see today's state, every inflection as it happens and the full history since 2013. Already a subscriber? Log in to see it in real time.
Bitcoin price (log scale), coloured by the BG Vector state of each day. Drag across either chart to zoom; double-click to reset.
Growth of 1 BTC-equivalent following the suggested allocation (rest in cash), against buy & hold. Each day's allocation is applied to the next day's return; no fees.
Inflection log
| Date | Call | State | BTC price | Allocation |
|---|
The four Bitcoin market states
● Accumulation
100% BTCBitcoin is risk-on while valuation is still moderate. Momentum and capital flows are positive and the cycle is not overheated.
● Euphoria
60% BTCBitcoin is risk-on, but valuation is high (Regime Score ≥ 65). The trend is still up, so exposure is trimmed rather than closed.
● Caution
0% BTCBitcoin is risk-off: momentum and capital flows have turned negative. The signal steps aside and holds cash.
● Capitulation
30% BTCBitcoin is risk-off but cheap (Regime Score ≤ 30) or most short-term holders are underwater. A partial position starts to buy the fear.
What the allocation means
The percentage is the share of a portfolio BG Vector suggests holding in bitcoin; the rest stays in cash. 100% is fully in bitcoin, 60% is 60% bitcoin and 40% cash, 0% is all cash.
The allocation follows risk, not expected return. This is how bitcoin behaved after each state since 2013:
| State | Allocation | Median 90-day return | Negative after 90 days | Avg. worst drop, next 180 days | Volatility (annualized) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accumulation | 100% | +15% | 34% | −18% | 60% |
| Euphoria | 60% | +24% | 43% | −25% | 121% |
| Capitulation | 30% | +3% | 46% | −24% | 69% |
| Caution | 0% | −19% | 69% | −32% | 60% |
- Accumulation vs Euphoria. Both are risk-on. In Euphoria bitcoin has kept rising on average, even faster than in Accumulation, but with twice the volatility, more frequent losses and deeper drops afterwards, because that is where cycle tops form. Cutting to 60% gives up some upside for much less risk; it doesn't exit, because tops tend to run further than valuation models expect.
- Caution vs Capitulation. Both are risk-off. Caution has been the worst state to hold bitcoin (negative after 90 days 69% of the time), so the signal holds cash. Capitulation is risk-off too, but the market is already cheap or short-term holders are underwater, and returns have been roughly flat from there, so a 30% position starts to buy the fear.
Note: the four allocations (100 / 60 / 30 / 0%) are a design choice based on this reasoning, not the result of an optimization. The calibration on 2013–2020 data only chose the thresholds (when the signal is risk-on and where Euphoria and Capitulation start). The statistics above use the full 2013 – October 2026 history.
How the Bitcoin regime signal works
BG Vector combines two axes. The fast axis decides whether Bitcoin is risk-on or risk-off from six momentum and on-chain capital-flow inputs:
Bitcoin price vs 200-day average
Price / SMA-200 − 1. The classic Bitcoin trend filter.
Golden / death cross
SMA-50 / SMA-200 − 1. Whether the medium-term Bitcoin trend agrees.
STH MVRV
Short-term holder MVRV − 1. Are recent bitcoin buyers in profit on average?
STH SOPR (7d)
Short-term holder SOPR − 1. Are recent buyers selling their bitcoin at a profit or a loss?
Net Capital Flow (30d)
US dollars entering or leaving Bitcoin over 30 days, relative to market cap.
Realized Cap change (30d)
How fast the aggregate cost basis of the Bitcoin network is growing.
Each input is oriented so that zero is neutral and scaled with tanh(x / RMS), where the
RMS uses only past data. Unlike a percentile, this keeps the sign: price above its 200-day average
or capital flowing in always counts as positive. The six scores are averaged and smoothed with a
7-day EMA; above zero is risk-on, below zero is risk-off.
The slow axis is the Bitcoin Regime Score, a 0–100 temperature of the Bitcoin cycle, together with the share of short-term holder supply at a loss. It separates the mild states from the strong ones.
Bitcoin backtest, tested honestly
The parameters were chosen using 2013–2020 Bitcoin data only. 2021 onwards was never used to pick anything, so it shows how the signal behaves on data it had not seen. Like BG Lab, the point is to avoid overfitting, not to show the best possible curve:
| 2021 – Oct 2026 (unseen) | BG Vector | Buy & hold |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | ×3.1 | ×2.8 |
| Max drawdown | −41% | −77% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| Inflections per year | ~3 | – |
The edge is mostly in avoiding drawdowns, not in out-earning bitcoin in bull markets: over the full 2013–2026 history buy & hold still has the higher raw return, while BG Vector has the better risk-adjusted one (Sharpe 1.42 vs 1.22). Choppy periods produce false flips, such as five inflections in the summer of 2024.
Bitcoin alerts and API
Get an email or Telegram message every time the Bitcoin regime changes: create an
alert on
BG Vector allocation % with the condition Value changes. The data is also in the
BGeometrics API: /v1/vector, /v1/vector/last and
/v1/vector/inflections. See the
API documentation.
Bitcoin risk-on / risk-off FAQ
What is BG Vector?
BG Vector is a daily Bitcoin market-regime signal. It says whether conditions are risk-on or risk-off, places the market in one of four states (Accumulation, Euphoria, Caution, Capitulation) and suggests how much of a portfolio to hold in bitcoin versus cash.
What do risk-on and risk-off mean for Bitcoin?
Risk-on means Bitcoin momentum and on-chain capital flows are positive: price is above its long-term trend, recent buyers are in profit and new money is entering the network. Risk-off means those forces have turned negative, which historically is when the deepest Bitcoin drawdowns happen.
Which on-chain metrics does BG Vector use?
Bitcoin price against its 200-day moving average, the 50/200-day cross, short-term holder MVRV and SOPR, 30-day Net Capital Flow and the 30-day change in Realized Cap, combined with the BGeometrics Regime Score and the share of short-term holder supply at a loss.
How often does BG Vector change?
It is recalculated every day with the previous day's Bitcoin close. Since 2021 it has flipped between risk-on and risk-off about three times a year, and more often in choppy, sideways markets.
How is BG Vector different from the Regime Score?
The Regime Score is a slow, continuous 0–100 cycle temperature. BG Vector adds a fast momentum and capital-flow axis on top of it and turns both into a discrete signal with dated inflection points and an allocation, which is what you can act on.
Does BG Vector use future data?
No. Every input is scaled using only the history available on that day, and the backtest applies each day's allocation to the next day's return. Recomputing the series with history cut at any past date gives exactly the same values for those dates.
Why is the reading delayed?
The current state and the last 7 days are available to subscribers in real time. Without a subscription the page and the API show the latest reading older than 7 days, and four years of history.
Is BG Vector investment advice?
No. It is a Bitcoin analysis tool, not a recommendation to buy or sell bitcoin. The backtest is a historical simulation without fees, slippage or taxes, and a signal that worked in the past may stop working.
Disclaimer. The track record is a historical simulation without fees, slippage or taxes. A signal that worked in the past may stop working, and some on-chain metrics are revised over time. BG Vector is a Bitcoin analysis tool, not investment advice.