Bitcoin analysis week 31 May to June 6, 2021

Another week with the price lateralized and with a variation in the price of 2.5%, it began to trade at about $ 35,000 and has ended at $ 36,000 and with a maximum close to 40,000 $ and a minimum of $ 35,000, the price is staying within a small band and more if we compare it with the volatility that BTC has accustomed to us, which indicates the great indecision that we are experiencing in Bitcoin.

The flow of BTC on exchanges has increased by about 10,000 BTC which means that users are sending their BTC there with the intention of selling it. This operation is usually bearish but if we observe the movements by exchange we see that the arrival of BTC occurs mainly in Bitfinex where 11,554 BTC have been sent, in the rest of the exchanges the movements there is a balance between purchases and sales, which matches price stability.

In the daily chart of the flow of BTC to the exchanges, it is also appreciated that the movements occur around the 0 line, which has helped the price to have no appreciable variation throughout the week.

What can we expect for this week?

It must be borne in mind that the On-Chain analysis of Bitcoin has a marked observational character and is based on the history to be able to launch predictions it is necessary to have a more global context and it must always be taken into account that current events can considerably disturb the price. 

Difficult to predict because we come from two weeks with a very constant price and with both favorable and unfavorable news.

Bad news of the week

  • Elon Musk has returned to write several tweets on bitcoin which may have favored the decline. Here it is interesting to remember that although Elon continues to post negative news about Bitcoin, he is not commenting anything about what he has done with the more than $ 1 billion in bitcoin that Tesla bought.

Benign news of the week

It’s funny that such a big story had less of an impact on the price than a tweet from Elon Musk. Where the news has been noticed is in the Greed and Fear index.

The fact that there are countries that favor the adoption of Bitcoin will allow the businesses of the ecosystem to migrate to a safe place where they can develop and prosper, leaving with little effect possible prohibitive regulations of other countries.

Bitcoin coin and address distribution

Considerable drop in BTC in the hands of Humpback (> 10,000 BTC) but produced because 3 addresses have moved part of their bitcoin to Whales addresses, this is caused because some exchange has preferred to divide the BTC of any of their addresses with many BTC in several smaller ones.

It is clearly shown that it is the Whales (1000-10000 BTC), strong hands, who are hoarding the BTC since they are the only ones increasing their reserves, the rest of the groups are selling. The Whales believe that we are at a minimum and that the medium-term projection will be upward.

There is a lot of fear on the part of the Shrimp, addresses with less than one BTC (Retailers), who are getting rid of their BTC, these last 7 days they have sold 17142 bitcoin. Many of them bought on the FOMO and are selling on the FUD losing money.

There is a decrease in the number of addresses of the groups with less amount of bitcoin such as Fishs (10-100 BTC), Crabs (1-10 BTC) and Shrimps (<1 BTC) that shows the decrease in volume and transactions that we have had these last 7 days. 

If we look at the SOPR indicator (Spent Output Profit Ratio) that shows us if the bitcoin spent in the last 24 hours have done so in losses or in gains with respect to the price at which they were bought, we see that bitcoin has a value of below 1 since May 12, a value less than 1 means that the BTC that are sold on average are sold at a loss, the people who are dumping their BTC at a loss are the last to enter the market who are more influenceable bad news and price swings. 

The trend of this indicator in recent days is upward and is approaching 1 which could indicate the end of the bear market.

Categories: Bitcoin, BTC, Coins, Distribution, Price, Trader, Trading

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