BTC bubble barometer

Bitcoin charts to get a rough idea of when the bullish and bearish periods are coming in BTC

On this page we are going to show a series of graphs to facilitate the identification of the bullish and bearish periods in the price of Bitcoin (BTC). These visual representations will help us better identify market trends.

One of the graphs that we will show is that of the halving periods. The halving is a scheduled event on the Bitcoin network that halves the reward miners receive for validating transactions. These periods have historically been shown to have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin, with bullish cycles often following them. Identifying these periods can provide us with valuable information about the growth and consolidation phases of the market.

Another chart will be the crossover of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This widely used technical indicator shows significant changes in price momentum. The bullish crossover, when the 50-day moving average exceeds the 200-day moving average, can indicate a possible bullish period, while the bearish crossover can signal a correction or downtrend period.

In addition, we will display the realized price chart, which shows the current market value of Bitcoin relative to the historical cost of coins in circulation. This chart provides a unique perspective on the current state of the market as it takes into account the price at which coins in circulation were purchased. This can help us assess whether the Bitcoin price is overvalued or undervalued compared to past prices.

These are just a few examples of the charts that we will use to analyze and better understand the behavior of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin halving cycle.

Here BTC prices are compared based on the days that have passed since the halving date.

Bitcoin 50 and 200 day moving average.

Open chart, Bitcoin day and week moving average

Influence of the halving on the monthly price of bitcoin.

Each bar corresponds to the percentage of rise or fall of the bitcoin price in a month during the halving cycles that occur every 4 years (approx.).
Each bar represents with a different color what rose or fell in that month in each halving cycle.
The graph shows that there are months within the halving period that to date the price of bitcoin (BTC) has behaved more or less the same. The months closest to the halving have always been rising and then a strong correction has arrived and at the end of the cycle it has an upward trend again.

Open chart, Bitcoin Influence halving monthly price bitcoin

Bitcoin Realized Price and Delta Capitalization

Open chart, Bitcoin Realized Price

Bitcoin price radar chart.

One complete turn corresponds to 4 years, which is approximately when the halving occurs.
The price of bitcoin is represented in the radius in logarithmic form.
The green dots are the halving dates, the orange ones are the ATH (All Time History) of the cycle, and the gray ones the lows.

Looking at the chart, you can see that there has been no line crossing, which means that the bitcoin price has never been lower than it was 4 years ago. It is also observed that to date the maximums (orange dots) and minimums have occurred in the same halving periods.

Open chart, Bitcoin price radar chart

Bitcoin 200 day and week moving average heatmap.

Open chart, Bitcoin 200 week moving average heatmap

The historical price of bitcoin in logarithmic scale with halving.

Graph with the average percentage to reach the next peak (100%) of the bull run, based on previous halving.

The charts of each indicator in the on-chain used. The value 100% indicates that we currently have the same value as in the peak of the year 2017.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
Indicates investor sentiment. It shows what you would gain or lose if you sold at this time and the value is normalized by dividing it by the capitalization.
Determine if the network as a whole is currently in a profit or loss state.

Stock-to-flow Deflection
It is the ratio of an asset’s current asset (stock) to its circulation / flow.
It is used to determine whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its scarcity.
If the deflection is ≥ 1 it means that the asset is overvalued according to the S / F model. If the deflection is <1, the asset is undervalued according to this model.

MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-score is a function that indicates the difference between the total market capitalization of Bitcoin and the market capitalization calculated with the price at which users bought their bitcoins and divided by the standard deviation of the market capitalization.
This shows by how many standard deviations the market value differs from the realized value.

Puell Multiple
It is calculated by dividing the daily issue value of bitcoins in dollars by the 365-day moving average of the daily issue value.

Reserve Risk
Represents the opportunity cost of holding an asset. Each day that a coin is kept, the owner defer the ability to exchange it for its cash value.
This deferred spending represents the confidence of the HODLers.

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
It measures the relationship between the current sale value and the purchase value of the bitcoins that have been spent / moved in the last day.
Indicates if current sellers are losing money.

Hodl Waves
It indicates the time that the bitcoin has not moved in our case the chosen time is one year. Under normal conditions, the more you save, the less you speculate on the price.
If more than 60% of the supply has not moved for a year or more, it has historically led to a rise in prices.

Market Cap Ratio (Market Cap to Thermo Cap Ratio)
This indicator is the relationship between market capitalization and the thermocap is calculated by dividing the market capitalization by the income of the miners throughout history in USD (thermocap).

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