Week with high volatility in the price of bitcoin where we have had falls of 10% and rises of 16% at the end of the week closes with an appreciation for the BTC of 2.37% and without defining a clear trend.
This week is preceded by a large drop in the price and its behavior has served to stop the decline and to lateralize the price. The decline in BTC was contained but was not accompanied by a large rally but by price maintenance.
This week we have had two bearish events:
- The criticisms of Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Central Bank of Japan, who joins the “party” pointing out that bitcoin is a speculative asset and not used as a medium of exchange. It makes me strange to argue that when Bitcoin has more than 100 million users and a capitalization of about $ 700 billion.
- The closing of the month of the options market, which, as usual since the beginning of the year, causes a significant drop in the price.
In the graph of the price of BTC it is observed that during all that we have been in 2021 we have a pattern of two weeks of price rise, two weeks of decline, just coinciding the end of the decline with the last Friday of the month, which is when the options market.
On the other hand, from a BTC distribution point of view we have that this last week whales have been buying, which are users with more than 1000 BTC, they have increased their bitcoin holdings by about 18000, this is an important data since they are considering that the price is close to the minimum and they take advantage of this circumstance to stockpile. To a lesser extent the Shark, Crab and Shrimp are also buying and the bitcoins of the exchanges (Humpback) are decreasing which means that users are withdrawing them to save them in their wallets which is a bullish symptom.
The number of addresses of the different upper groups, Humpback, Whale and Shark has decreased which added that the number of BTC has increased shows us that bitcoin has been moved from some addresses to group them in others that they already had. The decrease in the number of addresses of the Shrimp that are the addresses that have less than 1 BTC have decreased which shows the least activity that has been in this week.
An indicator of the chain to take into account at this time is the SOPR (Spent Out Profit Ratio) that tells us if the owners who are selling today are losing or making money. It is calculated by dividing the value at which it has been sold today and the value at which you bought those bitcoins. A value less than 1 indicates that current sellers are losing money and usually causes a stop in sales.
At the moment we are below 1, which historically has indicated that it is a good time to buy.
This week there has been high volatility but globally the price has remained and has been lateralized. The price variation does not show a clear trend but the on-chain indicators continue to show that it is a good time to buy.
In the past the bullish and bearish periods have followed the following flow of money; First they start in Fiat they move to Bitcoin, causing a bull run, then they go to the higher value altcoins and if the bullish stage continues, the money moves to the less known altcoin and then the sale of BTC causes a price drop and It goes the other way, from the altcoins with the smallest capitalization, to the higher altcoins then Bitcoin and later to Fiat.
Fiat → Bitcoin → Higher Cap Altcoin → Lower Altcoin →
→ Major Altcoin → Bitcoin → Fiat
In this cycle we would be going from the buying stage of minor altcoins to buying major altcoins, which means that we will shortly continue in the bullish stage.